Monday, November 15, 2010

The Economic Squeeze Play

As a baseball fan, I have witnessed the squeeze play in action. For those unfamiliar with it, it occurs when there is a runner on third base. The batter bunts the ball while the runner runs home and avoids the tag at home. They call it a squeeze play because the ball is not that far away from home plate and the runner must run as fast as he can to get home before being thrown out.

Unfortunately, the stagnant economy, stagnant wages, and the second round of quantitative easing (QE) proposed by the Federal Reserve might result in an economic squeeze play that could affect everyone. In addition, the tax increase set to occur on January 1, 2011 will make it even more difficult for many.

The nature of the economic squeeze play is simple. The stagnant economy means that many, including myself, are not getting raises or bonuses from our employers. In fact, many have seen their incomes decrease due to furloughs, having to seek part-time employment due to downsizing, or being underemployed. Tax increases scheduled for 2011 will only further decrease the income individuals have available.

As far as the role of QE in the squeeze play, I will need to take a minute to explain what QE is. QE is when the central bank (i.e., The Federal Reserve Bank in the United States) injects money into the economy by buying back some of its own debt from entities in the private sector, primarily banks (Benford, Berry, Nikolov, Young, & Robson, 2009; Ganley, 2010). The theory is that this injection of money into the economy will increase economic activity and growth.

This injection of money into the economy effectively increases the supply of money. However, as we learned in economics 101, when the supply of a commodity increases in the market, its value in the market decreases. If we look at money as a commodity in the global market, this injection of dollars into the U.S. economy will devalue the dollar. We are already seeing this devaluation before any additional dollars have actually found their way into the economy due to the anticipated increase in supply through QE.

A devalued dollar means that it will require more of them to purchase goods and services, especially goods and services imported into the U.S. With oil being one of our nation’s greatest imports, QE will result in higher prices for crude oil simply due to the devaluation of the dollar against currencies in countries where the U.S. purchases crude oil. This will not only result in higher gas prices at the pump, but higher prices for other goods and services since the cost of shipping them to retailers will also increase.

The squeeze play for consumers will be that they will have to deal with higher prices and taxes while they see their incomes remain the same or even decrease. Instead of using QE to increase economic activity, policymakers need to consider reductions in government spending coupled with tax cuts. The reduction in government spending will result in additional capital being available for the private sector. Tax cuts will place more discretionary income into the hands of consumers so they will be able to purchase products and services produced in the private sector. Increased activity in the private sector will mean more jobs, less unemployment, and even a return of pay raises and bonuses. What we have to ask ourselves is why people we elect to office, who claim to be so smart, cannot figure out this simple concept. Instead, we want to try gimmicks like QE and endanger the financial future of individuals by squeezing them economically.

Our newly elected congress needs to call up officials in the Federal Reserve and question them as to why they believe in even trying the dangerous gimmick of QE. They need to expose their ignorance. Then, they need to truly stimulate the economy using tax cuts and responsible government spending. When they do, they will unleash the power of the free market and real economic growth will be the result.

References:

Benford, J., Berry, S., Nikolov, K., Young, C., & Robson, M. (2009). Quantitative easing. Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, 49(1), 90-100. doi:175268231 ProQuest Database

Ganley, J. (2010). Quantitative easing: injecting money into the economy. Teaching Business & Economics, 14(2), 21-23. doi:2079122171 ProQuest Database

Wednesday, September 1, 2010

We Are Lagging Behind

As the U.S. Economy continues to under-perform and thousands remain unemployed and risk losing their homes, other economies in the world are experiencing growth. In India, they are experienced the fastest growth rate in more than two years during the last quarter with a GDP growth of 8.8% (BBC News Business, 2010). The Russian economy showed a 4% growth in spite of a drought and businesses having to shut down due to wild fires (Google News a, 2010). The unemployment rate in Germany remains stable at 7.6% while the rate in the U.S. hovers around 10% (Google News b, 2010).

These numbers show that the U.S. economy continues to struggle while much of the rest of the world is starting to recover. The question we must ask is what they are doing that we are not.

In India, they credit their growth with strongly rising sales of Goods at home to Indian customers (BBC News Business, 2010). This means that demand for goods in India is increasing which causes us to assume the Indian people must have more income to spend or they are incurring debt. However, India has raised its interest rates four times to curb inflation. This increase in the cost of borrowing makes it more probable that the increase in demand is due to rising incomes in the developing economy of India.

In Russia, the recovery of energy prices has made up for the effects of the drought and wildfires. Russia is also experiencing increased economic activity, which led to a strong performance in the second quarter. We could therefore expect that the growth rate will increase as Russia recovers from the effects of the wildfires and drought (Google News a, 2010).

Germany’s stable employment picture is due to stimulus that subsidized shorter working hours so companies did not have to layoff workers but could keep them on their payroll with the government subsidizing the shortfall of income for these individuals. As the economy recovers, these workers are returning to full-time hours, reducing government subsidies and government deficits (Google News b, 2010). Since these employees were never fully on unemployment, and never experienced a reduction in their incomes, Germany avoided an increase in home foreclosures like those that we have experienced in the U.S.

The U.S. lags behind the rest of the world because threats of higher taxation due to the expiring of the Bush tax cuts, assessment of fees to pay for the new health care program, and higher energy costs because of cap and trade are stifling innovation and consumer demand. Instead of recovering energy prices, the U.S. has placed a moratorium on offshore drilling because of one accident on one oil platform. The BP oil spill was a tragic ecological disaster but it was an isolated incident and does not require the stoppage of all offshore drilling.

We also lag behind because the U.S. idea of a jobs bill is not the creation of more private sector jobs but the extension of unemployment benefits. Instead of following Germany’s lead by encouraging companies to cut hours instead of employees, and subsidizing workers who work less hours so they could remain on company payrolls, we opt to let the companies layoff workers and pay them unemployment benefits in perpetuity.

What our economy needs is a freeing up of capital through lower taxation. Encouragement of innovation through reduced regulation. With these incentives, U.S. companies will have capital for research and development and expansion. This will lead to more jobs, increased consumer demand, and lower unemployment. In November, we have an opportunity to vote for change that results in smaller government that is more responsive. We must vote for government that will begin freeing up capital so America can get back to work doing what made us great.

References
BBC News Business. (2010, August 31). India growth rate rises to 8.8%. Retrieved from http://ww.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11135197

Google News a. (2010, August 31). Russia grows 4% as economy recovers from crisis. Retrieved from http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iakitYFiqHmNaZPjcLXg29BJ5Kw

Google News b. (2010, august 31). German official unemployment rate stable at 7.6%. Retrieved from http://www.google.com/hostdnews/afp/article/ALeqM5hpC20s4vZTTZQwJRzslwIdKy6Uug

Attention U.S. Secretary of Education

In 2004, after working for 10 years at my present job, I decided to look for something better but after much searching, I discovered that the only way I would be able to better myself would be to finish my degree. Therefore, at the age of 48 I decided to return to school and complete my degree. However, a working professional like me must find a way to return to school, maintain a career, and care for their family.

The person I sold my home to the year before mentioned he was returning to school to complete his Masters Degree at the University of Phoenix. Knowing he was a busy professional himself, I decided to check out the program at the University.

I discovered that the program was tailored to the working professional and therefore, decided to enroll at the University of Phoenix to complete my Bachelors Degree in Accounting, earn a MBA, and sit for the CPA exam. Believing this was my ticket to financial success, I used student loans to pay for my education, believing that upon graduation, I would move into a better job. However, my timing was off for I graduated with my MBA in 2008, the same year the economy started declining. In addition to this, my wife’s job was eliminated in January of this year so we are now a one-income family. This, and not the curriculum at the University of Phoenix, is why I am among those who have applied for a deferment of my student loans.

I still have not found a better job but do not blame the University for this. Instead, I blame it on the down economic cycle the country is currently experiencing. I have experienced economic downturns in my life, and know that even though this one has lasted longer than most, it will end. I also do not regret my decision to continue my education.

Unfortunately, the proposed “Gainful Employment” regulation threatens to take away options for adult learning from individuals like myself. Many in our society have recently lost their jobs. I believe many of them find themselves in the same situation I did in 2004 and need to further their education to find gainful employment. They also need to find work and need a university tailored to the working individual. The “Gainful Employment” regulation threatens to take this opportunity away from them by making it difficult for universities like the University of Phoenix to offer student loans to their students.

I urge you to stop consideration of the “Gainful Employment” regulation option as a means to decrease the percentage of student loans in deferment or default and instead focus on growing our economy so their will be increased opportunities for professionals like myself to earn the resources they need to begin repayment of their student loans.

Sunday, August 29, 2010

Trusting God v. Trusting Government

When faced with uncertain times, we have no choice but to place our trust in something greater than ourselves. This is because in these times we do not have the answers and must seek them from someone or something greater than us. Some of us turn to God in these times, but who do people choosing not to believe in God turn to? In this posting, we will contrast trusting on God during these times against trusting in government programs and officials to help us.

Philippians 4:19 says “And this same God who takes care of me will supply all your needs from his glorious riches, which have been given to us in Christ Jesus.” (NLT). Those choosing to place their trust in God are depending on God to supply their needs out of his resources. The question we must ask is if God is willing to meet our needs. In addition, does God have the resources to meet our needs?

During a great famine in Israel, a poor widow was preparing to cook the last meal for her son and herself when she encountered Elijah. This is the Biblical account of the story.

1 Kings 17:10-16
"Would you please bring me a cup of water?" 11 As she was going to get it, he called to her, "Bring me a bite of bread, too."

12 But she said, "I swear by the LORD your God that I don't have a single piece of bread in the house. And I have only a handful of flour left in the jar and a little cooking oil in the bottom of the jug. I was just gathering a few sticks to cook this last meal, and then my son and I will die."

13 But Elijah said to her, "Don't be afraid! Go ahead and cook that 'last meal,' but bake me a little loaf of bread first. Afterward there will still be enough food for you and your son. 14 For this is what the LORD, the God of Israel, says: There will always be plenty of flour and oil left in your containers until the time when the LORD sends rain and the crops grow again!"

15 So she did as Elijah said, and she and Elijah and her son continued to eat from her supply of flour and oil for many days. 16 For no matter how much they used, there was always enough left in the containers, just as the LORD had promised through Elijah.

NLT

However, how do we know this is not just some mythological story that cannot be verified? Since there no witnesses living to verify the story, we can only look at the facts surrounding the story. First, there was a drought in the land at this time. Second, Elijah, a Jewish prophet was traveling to a Gentile city, hardly a place where he would be welcomed. If a Jewish prophet had entered a Gentile city and demanded a poor starving widow’s last meal, there is not doubt the other inhabitants of the city would have turned him over to the King from whom Elijah was running. The only reason the inhabitants would not have turned Elijah in is if they believed the widow’s needs were being taken care of, which they were in a supernatural fashion by God.

In another case, Peter and Jesus owed their taxes but lacked the resources to pay them. This is the biblical account of the story.

Matt 17:24-27

24 On their arrival in Capernaum, the tax collectors for the Temple tax came to Peter and asked him, "Doesn't your teacher pay the Temple tax?"

25 "Of course he does," Peter replied. Then he went into the house to talk to Jesus about it.

But before he had a chance to speak, Jesus asked him, "What do you think, Peter? Do kings tax their own people or the foreigners they have conquered?"

26 "They tax the foreigners," Peter replied.

"Well, then," Jesus said, "the citizens are free! 27 However, we don't want to offend them, so go down to the lake and throw in a line. Open the mouth of the first fish you catch, and you will find a coin. Take the coin and pay the tax for both of us."
NLT

Once again, the Bible presents a story for which we have no direct verification. However, since the Roman government and Jewish high priests at the time viewed Jesus as a threat, they would have taken any opportunity to arrest him. The fact that we have no record of an arrest of Jesus, other than the account in the Garden of Gethsemane, forces us to believe that Jesus and Peter were able to pay their tax. Otherwise, the Roman's would have arrested them for non-payment of their taxes.

As far as having the resources to meet our needs we have to look at Genesis 1. If we are going to choose to trust God to meet our needs, we must also believe that He created everything around us. If God created everything around us, it is not difficult to believe that he can meet our needs. This is a biblical account of some of the resources God possesses.

Ps 50:10-12
10 For all the animals of the forest are mine,
and I own the cattle on a thousand hills.
11 Every bird of the mountains
and all the animals of the field belong to me.
12 If I were hungry, I would not mention it to you,
for all the world is mine and everything in it.
NLT

The story of the widow and Elijah along with the story of Peter and Jesus paying their taxes show us that God is willing to meet our needs. The account in Psalms 50:10-12 and Genesis 1 show us he has the resources to meet our needs and if for some reason he does not have the resources, he can create them. However, if we choose not to believe in God to meet our needs, we can always trust in the Government.

The Government is willing to meet our needs. At least that is what politicians say during political campaigns. However, the continual war on poverty and failure of government programs like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid say differently. During political campaigns, politicians will say anything to get votes. However, once they get into office and discover that they lack the resources to make good on their promises, the needs of the voters who placed them in office, often are forgotten.

However, politicians can pass legislation to meet the voter’s needs by taking it from others through taxation, printing or creating more money, or borrowing it from some foreign government. So, let us take a moment to look at the effects of these policies.

Taxing others to meet the needs of voters may meet the voter’s needs that the politician promised to meet in the election, but it creates needs in other areas. For example, taxing the wealthy to provide healthcare or additional entitlement programs means that wealthy employers have less capital to build their businesses. In fact, they may have to downsize their businesses to pay the additional taxes. This means fewer new jobs and lay-offs due to downsizing. Therefore, voters receive the promised healthcare plan and other entitlement programs at the expense of jobs.

Printing or creating more money to meet these needs increases the money supply in the economy. This leads to inflation through devaluation of the dollar because it takes more dollars to pay for what we want to buy. In other words, the voter’s needs are met at the expense of paying more for other things they need

Borrowing money from foreign countries places us at their mercy. What if the foreign country demands immediate payment of the debt? What if our country lacks the resources to pay the debt? This situation could compromise our national security and place the population at risk. In other words, the voter’s needs are met at the expense of national security.

The problem with dependence on Government to meet our needs is that even if the Government has the desire to meet the voter’s needs, they lack the resources to do so and must take resources away from someone else, cause inflation, or risk national security to make good on their promises.

This is why I believe that the best place to put our trust during uncertain times is in God. Even though both God and Government may have the desire to meet our needs, their motives for having this desire are different. God loves us and does not want to see us perish.

Ps 37:25

25 Once I was young, and now I am old.
Yet I have never seen the godly forsaken,
nor seen their children begging for bread.
NLT

John 3:16

16 "For God so loved the world that he gave his only Son, so that everyone who believes in him will not perish but have eternal life.
NLT

God’s motives are to care for our physical needs out of his rich resources and meet our spiritual needs though the sacrifice of his only Son, Jesus. Politicians running for office are only interested in one thing, our vote. After receiving our vote, they have little incentive to work on meeting our needs, at least until the next election.

However, the biggest reason for my belief in placing our trust in God is that he has infinite resources available for meeting our needs. This does not mean we will all have a mansion or luxury car if we place our trust in God, but that our physical needs (Philippians 4:19, Psalm 37:25, Matthew 6:33) and spiritual needs (John 3:16) will be met.

Take a moment today and place your trust in God. If you have not placed your trust in God for meeting your spiritual need for salvation, I encourage you to do it know. The Bible tells us in Romans 10:9-10

9 For if you confess with your mouth that Jesus is Lord and believe in your heart that God raised him from the dead, you will be saved. 10 For it is by believing in your heart that you are made right with God, and it is by confessing with your mouth that you are saved.
NLT

Now with the same trust you placed in God to save you, trust him to meet your physical needs as well and watch what happens.