The primary elections this week are over. Now it is time for the Monday morning quarterbacks to begin analyzing what happened. The election in Alaska proves that the polls are not always right and that even after voters cast their vote, we must be diligent to insure no vote tampering occurs. The gubernatorial primary in Florida provides a roadmap for conservative victory in the general election.
The Alaskan Republican Senatorial Primary
Less than a month before Tuesday’s Republican Senatorial Primary, Joe Miller trailed Incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski 61.8% to 29.6%. However, after Tuesdays election, Joe Miller holds a 2300 vote lead with 13000 absentee ballots left to count leading to the question of how the pollsters could be so wrong (Gizzi, 2010).
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Pollsters have observed that when a conservative challenger goes up against a moderate Republican candidate there is usually a late surge as occurred in this election. There is also the demographics of Alaska, which is a large state with a small population that spreads out over a large area making it difficult for pollsters to generate a representative sampling for their polls (Gizzi, 2010).
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However, I believe the main reason for the disparity in the polls is the underestimation by pollsters of the role conservatives play in Republican primaries. Liberals usually underestimate the large turnout of conservatives when a truly conservative candidate energizes them. It also helps when well-known conservatives like Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee endorse the candidate. In this election, the effect of the Tea Party Movement, driven by the failures of the current Congress and Administration, is causing many independents to favor conservatives.
However, the election in Alaska also reminds us that it is not over until the election is officially certified. With over 13000 absentee ballots left to count, the election is too close to call at this point. Experts believe that Joe Miller will win based upon where the absentee ballots are coming from but there are rumors of “found” ballots ala Al Franken (Erickson, 2010a). The Miller campaign must remain diligent and investigate any allegations of found ballots to insure no vote tampering is occurring between now and when the election is officially certified.
Lessons from the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary
Some pundits believe Rick Scott bought the Florida GOP gubernatorial primary (Erickson, 2010b), but that is shallow thinking and fails to look at the bigger picture. Although spending a lot of money allows a candidate to purchase advertising and gain name recognition, voters also consider a candidates stand on the issues when voting. Looking at the campaign of Rick Scott provides valuable lessons for candidates in the general election.
Rick Scott ran on a conservative agenda. He ran as a common sense businessman, a pro-lifer, and as someone who could create jobs (Erickson, 2010b). With the economy in a recession and out of control government spending, the voters were attracted to Rick Scott, believing his business savvy would bring fiscal responsibility to the state budget and create an atmosphere of job creation for the state.
His opponent ran a smear campaign but Rick Scott stuck to the issues and his conservative values (Erickson, 2010b). The lesson his campaign teaches is that conservatives can win in November by sticking to the issues and their conservative values and not resorting to a smear campaign. The voters this year are well informed and seek leaders who will lead them out of the current economic malaise.
Conclusion:
Conservative victory is possible by candidates sticking to their conservative values and the important issues (i.e. the economy and jobs), and not resorting to a smear campaign as most likely will be done by their opponents. However, the candidates must be on guard against any vote tampering before, during, and after the votes are cast. The important thing for all conservatives is to go out, vote in November, and take as many fellow conservatives to the polls with them as they can.
References:
Erickson, E. (2010a, August). Red alert: Emergency in Alaska. Retrieved from http://www.redstate.com/erick/2010/08/26/red-alert-emergency-in-alaska/
Erickson, E. (2010b, August). Lessons for conservatives from the Rick Scott campaign. Retrieved from http://www.redstate.com/erick/2010/08/25/lessons-for-conservatives-from-the-rick-scott-campaign
Gizzi, J. (2010, August). Why pollsters were wrong on Alaska. Retrieved from http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=38712
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